The shortage of transformers in the United States continues, and Musk's foresight is once again evident. When discussing AI trends last year, he pointed out that the Transformer big model algorithm of AI will lead to a shortage of transformers. In fact, the import value of transformers in the United States has reached 5.7 billion US dollars in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 83%. At the same time, the cumulative export value of transformers in China has also shown a strong growth trend, with a significant year-on-year increase of 3% in December.
Behind this series of data, it reflects the strong demand in the transformer market. Transformers, although inconspicuous, play a crucial role in the power system. Due to the voltage differences in power generation, transmission, and consumption, transformers have become indispensable control equipment. Therefore, the growth of transformers is closely related to the construction of the power grid, and its shortage is only natural.
During the 1950s to 1970s, the US power grid underwent large-scale construction. However, since 2000, the growth rate of electricity consumption has significantly slowed down, and there have been no major breakthroughs in power grid construction. In this context, transformers have gradually entered a stage of aging and natural renewal.
However, in recent years, the US power grid has faced new challenges. The rise of green electricity, electric vehicles, and AI driven data centers has brought marginal construction pressure to the power grid. Especially in areas with abundant wind and solar resources, as these areas are usually far away from the power consumption end, the increase in transmission distance leads to a significant increase in the demand for transformers in wind and solar power plants compared to traditional thermal power plants in order to maintain the same voltage level during grid connection. According to EIA statistics, there are currently over 10000 new energy projects waiting to be connected to the grid in the United States, which further exacerbates the burden on the power grid.
In addition, wind and solar power currently account for over 7% of the total electricity generation in the United States. As the proportion of new energy generation such as wind and solar power gradually increases to over 20%, the traditional power grid architecture will face compatibility issues and urgently need to be upgraded and renovated. Meanwhile, the rise of AI technology has also driven the continuous expansion of data center construction scale. According to the IEA's forecast, by 2030, the proportion of data centers' electricity demand in the United States will climb from the current 7% to 16%, which will further drive the construction of power grid infrastructure. The rapid popularization of electric vehicles also requires flexibility transformation of the power grid.
In summary, the US power grid is facing marginal growth challenges brought by green electricity, AI, and electric vehicles, resulting in excess demand for equipment such as transformers outside the update cycle. In addition, the instability of the logistics system during the global pandemic has intensified the hoarding demand of US transformer demanders, although this emergency procurement has eased after the pandemic. However, the situation on the supply side is not optimistic. Due to the long-term low-speed construction of the US power grid, the number of domestic transformer manufacturers has significantly decreased after integration, and can only meet 20% of the US demand, with the remaining part relying on imports.